Had tea last week with a delivery-station owner in Riyadh. His read on 2026: more parcels, less cash. For the first time, COD was under half of his White Friday pre-orders.
It's not a fluke. COD was around 65% of Saudi orders in 2024; what I see now is 45-50%. Tabby and Tamara own the checkout line, and younger buyers would rather not count cash at the door.
So the math changes. COD costs 3-7 SAR per parcel and settles T+7 to T+14. BNPL runs 4-6% in fees but settles T+2 to T+5. It looks pricier until you count the extra week of cash, and in peak restocking that week is everything.
Returns matter more. On the 3C and apparel accounts I handle, COD first-attempt failure runs 12-18%; prepaid is 5-8%. BNPL sits in between at 8-11%. Our 8ship last-mile data, split by payment method, puts BNPL delivery success about 4 points above COD.
Don't get comfortable. Failed installments and disputes still land back in your warehouse. From November to January, reverse flow can hit 6-9% of outbound. Budget the Saudi return address, relabeling and re-listing cost now.
Three things I'd do. Put BNPL first on the checkout page and use a 5-8% prepaid discount to pull COD buyers over. Stop absorbing the COD fee and show it as its own line. Split your delivery script and label template into paid versus collect, so drivers aren't guessing at the door.
Honestly, COD isn't dying. Iraq and Egypt still run on it. But in Saudi and the UAE, budgeting cash flow at 60% COD next year will hurt. What's your COD share this quarter?