Early September: air freight from Guangzhou to Riyadh sits at around ¥24 per kilo, about 15% off the August peak. Forwarders tell me the panic is over. Space is easy to find.
My take? This window closes by mid-October. Black Friday and White Friday stock must leave China by late September. Saudi customs now matches low-value VAT declarations against ZATCA data. Sloppy invoices get held at clearance.
Plainly: ship your first Q4 batch this month. You save on freight and skip the late-October congestion. If you fly, ask for a locked rate with a guaranteed-space clause. If you go by sea, book a vessel with a cutoff before October 10th.
One last thing: Egypt and Iraq still have slow payment cycles. Collect deposits before shipping—exchange rates can eat your margin.
Have you booked your September allocation yet?